Would Raila-Karua combination take the Presidency?Updated: Tuesday, July 12, 2011 Story by: JOSH MEMENTO
Kenya's political atmosphere is inundated with calls to have intrepid leadership succeeding President Kibaki. More than ever Kenya must get it right in the choice for political leadership. However, there is a character that identifies Kenyans: balancing political power against tribal matrix. Loathe it or like it, tribal diversity is not going anywhere and so is its influence in the political arena. If opinion polls conducted lately is anything to go by, Raila Odinga is the man to beat in the coming election. All guns are trained on him. It is a cabal schemed by a group that cannot fathom out PM Raila Odinga taking over the mantle of country's leadership. This the G7. Whether this group will hold together upto election time in August next year is a matter of speculation.
However, the group's denominator is its common enemy: Raila Amolo Odinga. It has been spirited fight which has historical roots and political undertones. Though G7 have a common enemy they do not (so far) have a common general to lead the war against their perceived enemy. Indeed, my advice to them is, in seduction (trying to woo Kenyans to trust them with leadership), retreat is strategy. It is a moment to reflect on mistakes and plan fresh tactics to counter the enemy. Kenyans could though be getting weary of insatiable hate that the group has against the PM. Having nothing else to show can easily backfire. Hold your horses, guys.
Let us study the best combinations for the Presidency and Deputy Presidency. Being an observer of the political drama over a period of years, my crystal ball tells me that it is not going to be easy for any of the contenders. However, the headache of seeking public approval can be lessened with an appropriate choice of running mate.
Raila's strategy is to become the bearer of the dream of a reformed country. Winning the prize does not come without a price. Naming his running mate is probably the biggest Raila's headache so far. With no deals to cut, constituting a Pentagon-like group will not wash. My best bet for Raila's running mate would be Gichugu MP Martha Karua. This is so because Deputy PM Musalia Mudavadi has become a political liability after the loss of Ikolomani seat to incumbent Bonny Khalwale. The tribal matrix is so complex that determinant must be derived from public approval rather than political suitability. Karua as running mate will work out for a number of reasons. First, the women folk will be contented that they are well and highly represented. This would deliver majority of women votes to a man candidacy. Kenya is patriarchal society and a man must be seen to head the family of presidency. However, woman's choice cannot be taken to the bank as Kalonzo's choice of Julia Ojiambo in 2007 as running mate, did not excite women not even her constituents.
Secondly, Martha was the force that opposed Raila in 2007 disputed elections. If the two can come together this would present a therapeutic effect in healing tribal rifts among Kenyan communities. Thirdly, both Karua and Raila are reform minded. Although power corrupts good people, choosing someone who is already compromised in vices is political folly. One represents and resonates with the young turks while the other represents the old folks. Fourth, is the tribal trump card. With all due respect to other tribes, history has it that Kenya achieve tremendous growth and calm when Kikuyus and Luos work together.
Let us turn to the other crowded arena of anti-Raila forces. My best choice would be Eugene Wamalwa. Though he has not outgrown his late brother's political shadow, Eugene has less baggage of the group. His choice for running mate would be either Ruto or Uhuru. Luhya being the third largest tribe in Kenya, choice for Wamalwa would bring together the community. However, loyalty of the Luhya community cannot be relied on. Late Kijana Wamalwa came distant fourth in 1997 in an election that then incumbent Daniel Moi garnered majority of Luhya votes.
Secondly, it would be easy to market Wamalwa than it would be for Uhuru or Ruto who have ICC cases hanging over their necks like the Albatross. Kalonzo Musyoka would not sell has he has eroded his trust throw his forays on the ICC process with his shuttle diplomacy campaign. Kenyans are also aware of his fence-sitting style of politics. However, Ruto has Moi factor weighing on his shoulders. This flamboyant politician has not reconciled with his political 'father' Moi who he ridiculed during last elections.
Uhuru's stab who be punctured by his lineage. Coming from the First family that Kenyans believe is responsible for unequal distribution of resources, it would be hard sell for Uhuru outside his Kikuyu backyard.
However, the performance of Uhuru and Ruto in government speaks volumes of people who can perform. Under Uhuru the economy has stabilized from near dose dive after 2007 election chaos. Ruto's imprint in ministries that he has lately headed speaks for itself. From the Agriculture to ministry of Higher Education, Ruto has made his presence felt with result oriented approaches. Either of the two would be a good blend of carryover and fresh thinking in leadership.
The last force would be Mutava Musyimi with Tourism minister Najib Balala as running mate. This combination will cement the gap of religious hostilities and suspicions between the Muslims and Christians. Coming from minority community, Mutava would have no tribal following to flaunt. Balala's choice will extinguish the embers of secession fronted by a group of Coast residents.
One year, though, is eternity in politics. Many changes are likely to be seen and the tide may shift in the due course of time. However, based on the present players and dynamics, these seems to be the probable combinations that would make a good fight for the country's presidency.
joshmemento@yahoo.com
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