Uhuru and Ruto: Hague drama may make or break Kalenjin-Gikuyu unity

Uhuru and Ruto: The Hague jinx

Updated: Wednesday, July 27, 2011 Story by: JOSH MEMENTO

As the country wakes up every new day, the Hague confirmation hearings are drawing near. No doubt the Hague trials will permanently alter the course of Kenyan politics and leave an indelible mark in the Kenyan political landscape.

But even as reality of confirmation hearings sinks, Uhuru and Ruto (the two gentlemen at the centre of political quagmire) continue to wield fanatical political following that has seen Uhuru's political ratings rise closing in on PM Raila Odinga as the preferred successor of President Kibaki. The two have created a perception that they are being persecuted and the man behind their woes is the PM.

Uhuru and Ruto definitely wield a lot of political influence. They have stated categorically that theirs is a mission to block Raila from becoming president. Both gentlemen have taken vantage positions to woo their communities and have conveniently exploited gullibility of their communities on effects of the trials on their political careers. In the worst case scenario, if charges against them are confirmed later in September, there is a real danger that their communities will link their trials to the PM. This is likely to deny the PM votes he desperately needs from these regions.

Coming from the vote-rich regions of Central Kenya and Rift Valley, Uhuru and Ruto cases at the Hague could dim the star of Raila succeeding President Kibaki as the fourth President of Kenya. The two communities seem to have been joined by the 2007/8 chaos that left more than 1000 people dead and 500,000 others internally displaced.

Somehow the duo has managed to convince many of their followers that their woes have something to do with Raila's influence. While the assertions are definitely untrue, the propaganda campaign seems to have achieved its objective and likely to bring home their mission of preventing Raila from assuming the presidency.

As the Hague process rolls on Central Kenya heir apparent and silently anointed successor, is rolling up his sleeves oblivious of the obstacles raised by the ICC courts. Same applies to Rift Valley de facto leader William Ruto. Strangely 2007/8 post election violence pitted the Kalenjin against the Gikuyu from where Ruto and Uhuru come from.

Both communities have a high tendency to be herded by their tribal kingpins. Moi had managed to call shots among the Kamatusa group of the expansive Rift valley while both elder Kenyatta and Kibaki have held a sway among the Gema communities of the Central region. Sentiments expressed by other leaders in support of the Uhuru and Ruto, leave no doubts that they are unperturbed by the Hague process.

As the ICC prosecutor Moreno Ocampo continues to gather evidence against the two, he has also stepped up demands to have them relieved their duties from the government. The government of President Kibaki has continued to bury its head in the sand like the proverbial ostrich on Ocampo's demands. And even went ahead to open its own miniature investigations, four years after the violence.

If the charges against the two are confirmed, it would become difficult under the new Constitution dispensation for any of them to have his name on the ballot in 2012 general elections. However, whoever they anoint are their preferred presidential contender, is likely to reap from these communities. Whether this would make true their objective of preventing Raila to become President, only time will tell. Pundits are however skeptical on whether the two communities will remain together after Hague or the magic that holds them together would be lost.

It is clear any presidential hopeful must make inroads in these two communities due to their numbers and fanatical following. The tragedy that analysts sight in case the cases against the two are confirmed is their communities would be left like a herd without a shepherd. It would be too late for any of other politicians to appeal to these communities to the level attained by these two.

Only time will bear us out whether likes of Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth in Central Kenya and Gideon Moi, Samuel Poghision or Isaac Ruto in Rift Valley are likely to reap from post-Hague tragi-drama of two political-cum-tribal kingpins.

joshmemento@yahoo.com